2 July, 2007 LEARNING FROM HISTORY Year after year pilots and passengers are killed and injured in similar types of accidents . Surely we are smart enough to learn from the past mistakes of others . The following safety article  is reproduced here with the kind permission of Dave Sutton and the Red Star Aviation Museum in the USA. AWAL applauds safety-related input but, pending official review, does not necessarily endorse the stated views. 'Once we identified our mission, we began studying Warbird mishaps seriously from a statistical analysis standpoint. What we found is that the majority of Warbird accidents are almost entirely predictable. There are a number of reasons, but for now let's just say this: Warbird Accidents statistically occur either during the first few years of operation, or after many years of operation. On one side of the equation, there are men who are so experienced that they believe that they cannot learn anything, and that they are immune to mishaps. Interestingly enough, ex-Military and Airline pilots have some of the WORST mishap rates. On the other end of the spectrum new operators who are overconfident or poorly trained or who are motivated by the desire to "show off" are killed with regularity. Low level aerobatics and displays over the "Cone of Stupidity" (the area over a pilot's airport or home, where he wants to "show off") kill pilots every year. Flight into IMC weather kills another batch every year. In piston engine aircraft, engine failures kill pilots every year (and not so with jets!). But, here's the scary thing: In many of the fatal mishaps, some of the "Old Hands" knew in advance that the pilot was heading for trouble! The pilot had followed an identifiable path to the mishap, and other people knew it! Our question is, "Why wasn't this message communicated to the operator before it was too late?" Well, sometimes it has been. We have identified no less than six different operators that we felt were heading for a mishap, have informed them, and in every one of the six cases the pilot has been killed within six months. That's pretty scary. We realize that the message will not always be heard, and there's precious little that we can do about it. But remember: If we suggest to you that you might want to revisit your safety culture, pay attention. There's a reason that we are concerned. We don't want your photo to join the others on our wall of memories.'